Gran Turismo 5 sales prediction

Simple poll, how well do you guys think GT5 will sell in 3 months?

My vote is...3 million +. Reason: Gran Turismo 4 sold significantly less than Gran Turismo 3, and after 5+ years with still no GT5 many fans will have forgotten and moved on. The PS3 userbase is WAY lower than the PS2 user base. The Tie Ratio is more than 3 lower on the PS3 than the PS2. And the final reason, the preorder numbers on VGchartz have been incredible underwhelming with 7 weeks till launch [from sept. 18] and only 181.4 thousand preorders. However it is still a major exclusive from a major franchise and very likely a AAA game so it will still get great sales.

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

It will probably outsell GT5: Prologue.

Did GT5: Prologue do well in sales?

BlackStigma wrote:

Simple poll, how well do you guys think GT5 will sell in 3 months?

My vote is...3 million +. Reason: Gran Turismo 4 sold significantly less than Gran Turismo 3, and after 5+ years with still no GT5 many fans will have forgotten and moved on. The PS3 userbase is WAY lower than the PS2 user base. The Tie Ratio is more than 3 lower on the PS3 than the PS2. And the final reason, the preorder numbers on VGchartz have been incredible underwhelming with 7 weeks till launch [from sept. 18] and only 181.4 thousand preorders. However it is still a major exclusive from a major franchise and very likely a AAA game so it will still get great sales.

I agree. It's possible it may get high 3 million, almost 4 million but I don't think it will hit the 4million mark, for reasons you gave.
Also ps3 gamers don't buy exclusives lolololol

DarkSwarm85 wrote:

It will probably outsell GT5: Prologue.

Did GT5: Prologue do well in sales?

Almost 4 million.

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

I think 3 to 4 million

BlackStigma wrote:

The PS3 userbase is WAY lower than the PS2 user base.

That didn't stop GOWIII selling 25% more than its prequels =P
I voted 5 million+, solely because of the sales Prologue.. xD

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

my brother and I along with a couple of more friends are buying Ps3s and the racing sets just for this game. we have been hyped up! It's going to be so fun! Cost estimated for each person is about 800-1200 we are all spending each on our rigs. We are die hard fans for GT and we have been waiting for 5 for along time. The game will do great! I just hope they improved alittle on the tunning and customization then before.

In the first 3 months I'd say at least 2 million. Speaking as a PS3 owner I won't be one of those, though. Always been more into arcade racers than racing sims. I miss Jet Moto.

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

Well here in the US, Halo outs Move's ads 5:1

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

Well here in the US, Halo outs Move's ads 5:1

Ok. Well I'm sure Kinect will outmarket GT5 during that time.

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

Well here in the US, Halo outs Move's ads 5:1

Ok. Well I'm sure Kinect will outmarket GT5 during that time.

I doubt it, Sony has done pretty good with games of theirs that have a huge cult following(like GOW3), and also like halo reach will get sales do to people being loyal to the GT brand. I also expect Kinect to fail the first few weeks compared to move because MS is trying to sell the entire 360 instead of a just the camera, and the camera itself is $150, which will turn gamers off more than the $100 starting price of move.

Once it becomes a greatest hits, I can see it selling 6-7 million units. GT has historically been Playstation's best selling franchise, so expect the it outsell Call of Duty and Uncharted 2 eventually. It will be a slow burn seller for the rest of the PS3's life cycle.

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

Well here in the US, Halo outs Move's ads 5:1

Ok. Well I'm sure Kinect will outmarket GT5 during that time.

I doubt it, Sony has done pretty good with games of theirs that have a huge cult following(like GOW3), and also like halo reach will get sales do to people being loyal to the GT brand. I also expect Kinect to fail the first few weeks compared to move because MS is trying to sell the entire 360 instead of a just the camera, and the camera itself is $150, which will turn gamers off more than the $100 starting price of move.

If Microsoft can market Kinect in a good way to the target casual audience I can see it succeeding. The problem with the Move was the confusing pricing scheme. I saw advertising campaigns here in Aus where they had to have checkboxes indicating what you needed to buy because it was that confusing. Kinect is a simple to get across to the audience as it requires only one peripheral.

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

Well here in the US, Halo outs Move's ads 5:1

Ok. Well I'm sure Kinect will outmarket GT5 during that time.

I doubt it, Sony has done pretty good with games of theirs that have a huge cult following(like GOW3), and also like halo reach will get sales do to people being loyal to the GT brand. I also expect Kinect to fail the first few weeks compared to move because MS is trying to sell the entire 360 instead of a just the camera, and the camera itself is $150, which will turn gamers off more than the $100 starting price of move.

If Microsoft can market Kinect in a good way to the target casual audience I can see it succeeding. The problem with the Move was the confusing pricing scheme. I saw advertising campaigns here in Aus where they had to have checkboxes indicating what you needed to buy because it was that confusing. Kinect is a simple to get across to the audience as it requires only one peripheral.

I know Kinect could sucede at some point but I don't think it'll sell that fast at first because most casuals aren't gonna shell out $300+ for it or move when the wii is only $200. At least Move has some hard core games backed up behind it to give it some early sales. But we never know how things will turn out in this economy. Both the 360 and PS3 outsold the wii in every territory last week, I'd never thought I'd say that but I just did.

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

ghost23 wrote:

Eiffel 65 wrote:

I said 6 million due to brand loyalty and the fact that its released near Black Friday meaning Sony(if there smart) could do a boat load of KB ads for it and people would buy it with a PS3 on black friday. Also I've been looking at VG Chartz and quite a few articles say that it'll give the PS3 a big boost this Holiday, and may overshadow kinect (because they're launching on the same week).

I don't think Kinect will matter at all. They are two totally different audiences. The majority of the people who are going to buy GT5 are people who only own a PS3 and the majority of the people who are going to buy Kinect are the casuals.

Yes but the advertising can only be controlled by one of them. Look at Halo and PS Move, which was advertised more?

Halo? I dunno, I don't live in North America.

Well here in the US, Halo outs Move's ads 5:1

Ok. Well I'm sure Kinect will outmarket GT5 during that time.

I doubt it, Sony has done pretty good with games of theirs that have a huge cult following(like GOW3), and also like halo reach will get sales do to people being loyal to the GT brand. I also expect Kinect to fail the first few weeks compared to move because MS is trying to sell the entire 360 instead of a just the camera, and the camera itself is $150, which will turn gamers off more than the $100 starting price of move.

If Microsoft can market Kinect in a good way to the target casual audience I can see it succeeding. The problem with the Move was the confusing pricing scheme. I saw advertising campaigns here in Aus where they had to have checkboxes indicating what you needed to buy because it was that confusing. Kinect is a simple to get across to the audience as it requires only one peripheral.

I know Kinect could sucede at some point but I don't think it'll sell that fast at first because most casuals aren't gonna shell out $300+ for it or move when the wii is only $200. At least Move has some hard core games backed up behind it to give it some early sales. But we never know how things will turn out in this economy. Both the 360 and PS3 outsold the wii in every territory last week, I'd never thought I'd say that but I just did.

I agree with you about Kinect not doing well initially. But like you said, Wii sales are declining and this means that all the casuals already own Wii's. So when they see both the Kinect and Move, the first thing they'll think is that Move is exactly like the Wii so there is no incentive to buy it but at least Kinect is something different. It may take some time for and word of mouth for them to adpot it but I still see Kinect to have a much higher success rate than the Move.

ghost23 wrote:

I agree with you about Kinect not doing well initially. But like you said, Wii sales are declining and this means that all the casuals already own Wii's. So when they see both the Kinect and Move, the first thing they'll think is that Move is exactly like the Wii so there is no incentive to buy it but at least Kinect is something different. It may take some time for and word of mouth for them to adpot it but I still see Kinect to have a much higher success rate than the Move.

I think Kinect will sell more consoles, but the Move will sell more individual units.

Four million.